Potentially severe storms followed by cooler weather and a possible return to Winter……

Today we are seeing a line of strong to severe storms traversing the SE US, and currently moving through Northern Georgia. There are reports of significant damage and flooding in areas of Tennessee.  We could potentially see hail, high winds, downpours, with localized flooding, over the next several hours, in Georgia, then over to SC and NC tonight.  Following these storms, it appears the atmosphere is about to go into a pattern shift back to more of a Winter type regime. I had anticipated this to occur from 2/20 to 3/6 timeframe, so it is just in time.  The NAO looks to go negative for the next 10-14 days, along with the PNA going positive during that timeframe. The positive PNA brings high pressure ridging to the western US and low pressure troughing to the eastern US, tapping into colder Canadian air, and sliding it into the Eastern United States.  If the SW Atlantic HP Ridge is beaten down enough the negative NAO may block a storm or two, keeping them from moving to our north and west.  This could provide us with a Gulf of Mexico storm and provide the potential for colder weather, and a storm with potential late Winter snowfall, for the period from 3/5-3/15.  I’ll update more this week.  Stay safe and listen for warnings today and tonight.